Jul 2026 - Present
Pool Arrival Forecasting
Predicts how many families arrive at the pool each hour, from the day's weather.
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Marked span is the 67–90.2°F observed while training.Past it — this is extrapolation.
- 66
- Arrivals that day
- 5PM
- Busiest hour
A ridge approximation of the deployed model, fit on the same 250 hours. MAE 3.00/hr against the deployed model’s 2.97 under leave-one-day-out CV. Close, but not the same thing, so this page says so rather than pretending.
The data behind it29 days · 250 recorded hours · one square per hour
Fig. 2
The pool recorded arrivals on paper and nothing else — no database, no counter, no export. Inked squares were recorded, the palest are hours the pool was open and nobody came, and empty outlines were never logged. Keeping those zeros is the whole point: they are where the bad-weather signal lives.
- 29
- Days observed
- 250
- Hours transcribed
- 1,589
- Arrivals logged
- 23%
- Below baseline MAE
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